U.S. Market Plunge: Black Friday Sell-Off

U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency all plummeted, experiencing a Black Friday. Crude oil plunged, gold surged, and Bitcoin crashed. What’s spooking the markets? Is this a short-term correction or a trend reversal?

Answer 1:
For those still hoping for a stock market recovery, the current situation is very clear:

1. Neither China nor the U.S. will end the trade war; neither side will concede. If one side retreats, the other will advance. This trade war will continue until a winner emerges.
2. The notion that both sides will fight until it hurts and then naturally reconcile can be discarded (currently, it appears the Chinese government has completely abandoned this idea).
3. U.S. policies toward China are almost entirely ruthless with no room for maneuver: the U.S. imposes taxes on Chinese ship docking, aiming to directly cripple China’s shipbuilding industry; the U.S. enforces semiconductor sanctions, aiming to stifle China’s chip and AI sectors. If not for the 57 Air Battle and the 93 Military Parade, a hot war between China and the U.S. might have erupted by year-end.
4. After completing the final piece of the semiconductor puzzle, China’s goal is moving toward complete decoupling. If you examine China’s recent measures, they are equally ruthless toward the U.S., with no room for compromise (China has never been this harsh before): full control over rare earths, iron ore settlements in RMB, sanctions against U.S. military-industrial enterprises (this is preparation in advance for a potential future hot war).

Answer 2:
The market still underestimates China’s strength. On May 12 and August 12, China and the U.S. jointly announced a tariff extension, meaning renegotiations are required before November 11. According to Trump’s tweets, contact had not even been established before China’s countermeasures, which clearly caught him by surprise, leading to extremely lengthy tweets. Unlike the progress the U.S. made in trade wars with the UK, Japan, and the EU, it has encountered significant obstacles with China.
The world’s former top two economic engines have now split, and the confrontation has not only not eased but also introduced immense uncertainty. Combined with the fact that global financial markets in recent years have been weakly correlated with actual economic growth—having long detached from the real economy—they are heavily influenced by monetary policy and political expectations, such as the Fed’s interest rate decisions and the intensity of confrontation between the top two economies. It is entirely normal for markets to be jittery. This time, it is highly likely due to intensified global risk aversion, with only gold and other precious metals rising against the trend, while stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, crude oil, etc., all fell together. China’s countermeasures indeed triggered this round of global asset price fluctuations, particularly concerns about future global economic trends.
As for the blow-ups of some high-volatility assets, it is mainly due to leverage. Leverage, as the name implies, amplifies both returns and risks. For example, with $10,000 of own capital, 5x leverage enables $50,000 in trading. When the return is 5%, leverage boosts the return to 25%; conversely, if it falls by 5%, the loss on principal reaches 25%. If the decline is severe, it can even result in losing all principal and owing money to others, which is why some people report 100% losses. In reality, the assets themselves have not fallen much; a 10% fluctuation is insignificant for virtual assets. There is no need to overly depreciate during declines; rises can be equally exaggerated. Even without underlying asset support, as long as there are participants, prices can be sustained—it is just that the participant base for mainstream coins and altcoins differs. This is somewhat similar to leveraged property speculation: buying a house with a 10% down payment, if it rises by 20%, after deducting interest and other costs, it yields a substantial profit; conversely, if it falls by 20%, it becomes negative equity, meaning selling the house would require paying the bank extra.
Now, it is truly difficult to predict the direction of Sino-U.S. relations, especially with intensified confrontation before the November 11 tariff extension. After all, these are the top two economies and the most deeply integrated into economic globalization (in terms of imports, exports, and global supply chains). If they truly collide, the impact would far exceed that of a localized armed conflict.

Answer 3:
The reason for the panic is that a new round of Sino-U.S.博弈 (contest) is about to begin.
Recently, China has been making constant moves, from which some clues are already visible.
First, China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans. It is currently the U.S. soybean harvest season, and in previous years, shipments to China would have begun by now. However, this year, U.S. soybean farmers have seen no orders at all. China has turned to Brazil to buy soybeans instead. U.S. media reports that $14 billion of U.S. soybeans are affected, though the actual figure may be higher, at least over $30 billion.
The second move is that China recently reinstated controls on rare earth technology exports. Previously, it only controlled rare earth raw materials; now, it has started restricting technology exports as well, making it clear that China is determined to use the rare earth card against the U.S.
Third, China has begun investigating some U.S. companies. On October 10, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) officially announced an anti-monopoly investigation into U.S. tech giant Qualcomm’s acquisition of Israeli automotive semiconductor company Autotalks. Generally, when China announces the start of an investigation, it already has the results—the company will be penalized, and it is merely a pre-announcement.
In addition to the above, China began preparing to counter the U.S. Section 301 ship bill long ago. Just yesterday, China announced special port fees for U.S. ships and issued detailed charging standards, demonstrating thorough preparation, entirely unlike the U.S.’s makeshift approach.
Reviewing this Sino-U.S. contest, although it was initiated by the U.S., China has consistently responded swiftly, with all counterattacks being well-prepared. The U.S. has instead become the passive one.
Now, the situation has changed again, with China becoming more proactive—no longer waiting for the U.S. to impose sanctions before retaliating, but instead imposing sanctions preemptively in response to impending U.S. actions. This is why Trump was so upset, and the messages he released after being upset are precisely the reason for the U.S. stock market plunge.
By the way, one more detail to note: China’s recent fierce offensive began only after the TikTok issue was resolved, and the solution for this round of TikTok was proposed by China. With no more concerns, China is going all out!

Answer 4:
The triple kill of U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency is all good news.
Stocks falling? It is just a correction after previous high gains, using Trump as an excuse? See if China’s low-priced stocks fall on Monday?
Gold falling? It rose too high before, so it is finding a reason to correct, complete position rotation, and scare off the weak-handed, isn’t it?
Bitcoin is just a tool for the U.S. to harvest global retail investors.
At most, it will fall for half a month, then the music and dance continue.

Answer 5:
The TikTok issue has been resolved, and the semiconductor issue is being resolved; the leverage the U.S. has over China is diminishing. However, policies have inertia, and the U.S. government continuing sanctions only provides emotional value to voters, with little practical benefit. Let the bullets fly for a while to recognize reality. If China does not sell rare earths, you will have to build from scratch. The money we spend on semiconductors, you will have to spend on rare earths. I can use a whole-nation system to solve the 0-1 chip problem, while your military-industrial complex would need to budget an astronomical figure for you—see if you can achieve it. For the future, ABCD extreme four choices, welcome to add.
A. U.S. snipers give Trump a brain-opening (i.e., assassinate Trump), the U.S. kneels to China, continue doing business in the future, watching China reach the top.
B. Trump holds 800 generals, start Season 3 (i.e., World War III).
C. Trump leads the U.S. to rebuild rare earth and manufacturing industries, the U.S. and China each form their own camps, never interacting again.
D. China’s brain shorts out, decides to kneel to the U.S.; or speculators help the U.S. solve rare earth and manufacturing reshoring.

Answer 6:
This is not panic, but turbulence due to lost support, even madness before disaster strikes. From the Great Recession to the Great Depression, all it takes is a U.S. stock market crash. Since the likes of Buffett have already exited, what remains is just a slaughter of the bulls. However, the Fed and U.S. authorities do not want to see a decline during their terms. If there is a Black Friday, then 2026 will be even darker. The fact that the market can still panic means some are still alive; when the storm truly arrives, only flight will remain.